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The author of this site is a lucky person. For one thing, he lives in the South of France. For another, he has two gorgeous kids. And for yet another, he has the Choise de Roi. This is a French term for having a boy first and then a girl. In his excellent book Chance Rules - An Informal Guide to Probability, Risk and Statistics , B Everitt gives an intersting account of three situations, to which I have added another;
A new neighbour arrives at your door to borrow a cup of sugar. You ask whether she has any children. She replies (one of);
(a) "yes I have two". "Any boys?", you ask.
(b)"yes, one nine years old and one five". "Is the eldest a boy?", you ask.
(c) "yes I have two" "Any boys?", you ask. "Yes" she says. The next day you see her with a small boy. "Is this your son?", you ask.
(d) "Yes". "Do you have two children?", you ask.
"Yes" she says, as she takes her sugar and leaves.
The question is, do these three possible answers affect the probability that both her children are boys?
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This activity is a Microsoft Excel document of 93K. Don't have Microsoft Excel installed on your computer? Download a free Excel viewer here. |